We say we have an inventory problem (and we do!) but it’s fascinating to see that the inventory of condos and single families in the Back Bay, South End, Beacon Hill and Seaport has gone from 215 properties available on the market in the depths of winter (mid January) to 461 properties as of today. More than 2x the number of homes for sale now…
That’s the example of our seasonality which we talk about often. In that period of time (January to May), 176 homes have sold and another 142 are under agreement to sell. 318 total properties trading out of 652 properties that have been listed. (Note: the numbers don’t line up exactly because there were homes lingering on the market prior to mid January.)
Taking it a step further, that means roughly half of the properties that get listed are selling. So, there are approximately 300 examples of sellers in core Boston who may be quite happy with the results of their sales/marketing campaign in 2025. There are another 300+ who are likely frustrated that their amazing (we never meet a seller who doesn’t love their home) property hasn’t sold yet. Of course, some of these homes will still sell this season but many of them will not, for a variety of reasons.
What we’re seeing more than anything, though, is sellers who are less reasonable than the generic buyer group who may want to purchase their property but can’t get to a number the seller will agree to. Often, these sellers overpaid for their property between 2017 and 2022 and believe they deserve to get at least what they paid for the property if not a sizeable return on what they paid.
The occupancy costs that buyers are facing are dramatically higher than what the sellers themselves are contending with. In large part, these occupancy costs on both sides are the problem. A seller has light occupancy costs that make the prospect of carrying their house for longer not as painful as it might be were their mortgage dollars more expensive. Conversely, the would-be buyer’s occupancy costs are so high (think 6+ percent rates and inflated purchase basis) that their urgency to close a deal is quite limited unless they think they’re getting the seller down from his/her lofty expectations. Ask any seller if they’d pay what they want their hypothetical buyer to pay for their property… the answer will be interesting, especially if you get specific about how much it will cost said buyer to occupy each month.
Overall, what we’re finding in both city and suburbs is that when sellers are off they’re off by about 10 percent. Sometimes as much as 15-20 percent from their original asking price. However, there have been plenty of instances where sellers price more conservatively or happen to have a truly special property and those deals are being inked at every bit of asking price if not more. It’s a terribly difficult time to predict market movements but we’re gaining insights each and everyday and we enjoy sharing those with our trusted clients to help them in their real estate dealings.